It is already possible to develop Strong AI which will be as capable as a humanís brain. These are the reasons why:
1) Hardware capabilities are already good enough.
2) Many part of AIS technology are already implemented.
3) Software development industry already able to make very complicated projects.
4) We already have proved model of Intelligence System: we know how human brain works.
Letís consider these points in details:
Hardware ability of modern computers has become
more than enough for Strong AI.
Hardware capability includes 3 major factors:
Estimated size of human memory is several gigabytes. The size of modern disks had surpassed 100 Gigabytes (that is more than humanís brain capacity).
Modern peripheral devices such as microphones and video cameras often outperform humanís ears and eyes. Moreover: human beings donít have anything similar to such computer devices as modems and network adapters, which allow direct high speed communication between individuals.
3)††††† Computational power:
Even 50 years ago computers were able to calculate with higher speed than humans. Modern computers are even faster.
Some argue that the human brain has ability to handle many processes simultaneously that the computer cannot. However, modern computers handle many processes simultaneously too. For example: show a movie, play music, calculate, and receive files from Internet at the same time.
Conclusion: computer hardware already outperforms humans.
Even if computers were weak for carrying Strong AI today, almost each year computersí abilities are doubled (Mooreís law). Therefore if we build even very slow system today, then with every passing year the system is going to work faster just because of hardware progress. (After 20 years it would work ~ million times faster: 220 = 1048576).
The only thing which the human brain can do better today than computer --- is efficient use of brain computational power.
Implementation of Strong AI requires implementation of large set of technologies. In spite that Strong AI is not implemented yet, many necessary parts of AIS technologies are already implemented and tested.
Letís look at several examples:
RDBMS (database) is essential part of any complex business application. RDBMS handles huge amount of information.
Internet (Web, HTTP, IRC, ICQ, Email,Ö) Ė is modern but very useful and very popular technology. Internet can connect every computer with each other. Right now Internet allows people to communicate each other through computers. Strong AI will use Internet for:
1) Connect to human society (and knowledge base).
2) Connect to other Strong AIs (that is connect to AI society).
Strong AI project is quite complex software project. However even more complex systems were implemented in the past. Many software projects are more complex than human DNA (note that human DNA contains way more than just genocode for intelligence).
Example of existing complex software systems:
Windows, Unix, Office, SQL Sever, Oracle, Google, Quake, PhotoShop, ERP systems and so on.
All these projects were successfully implemented and are in active use. Each of these projects is more complex than single humanís DNA.
We already have working intelligent system Ė human brain. In recent 50 years structure of human brain were explored. It is not mystery anymore. We know answers to questions:
1) We know what parts of human brain are.
2) We know what purpose (functionality) of brain parts is.
3)† We know how conditioned reflex is developed in human brain. (Understanding of conditioned reflex is important, because itís simple form of though).
4) †We know how neurons and axons work. That gives us brainís neural net model.
Bottom line: most of mysteries of human intelligence are solved already. We just need to implement them in our computers.
So, the time for Strong AI development has really come.
It will be shame for us (software developers) if geneticists modify human genome and clone ďimprovedĒ human before we develop Strong AI.